Zion, IL
By A.B. Dada
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About 1 year ago, I posted an article titled Gold de-hedging and the short term effect on gold’s dollar value. I was watching the dehedging phenomenon with gold in 2006, which was a very coordinated and systematic process over 2006. It continued into the first quarter of 2007, and started accelerating since then. I’m writing this article specifically because we hit #2 on Google for “Gold Investment” and #2 on Google for “Gold De-hedging” and I am getting a bunch of emails requesting information.

A year later, we now have top news regarding increased gold de-hedging, with the gold hedge book at its lowest level since 1992. In the third quarter of 2007 we saw a markable increase, one that is not expected to slow as the fourth quarter hits.

According to my information, the gold de-hedgers chopped almost 15% of their hedges in the second quarter alone. Some of the largest gold hedges are completely de-hedging all their positions by year’s end (I believe as much as 40% of hedges will be gone).

Why is this? Normally, gold producers hedge against gold in both directions: against a fall in prices, and against a huge rise in prices. Without these hedges in place, the producers seem to be thinking that there will be a large rise in the price of gold versus most or all currencies. This could be due to insider information detailing a future shortage of new gold, an increased demand in gold in the future, or a combination of both. I don’t believe specifically that this de-hedging comes because the producers believe that currencies will fall in relation to gold’s price. If that happened, the producers would be in trouble as they purchase their fuel, machinery and labor with fiat currency. When we look at gold’s price change, we always (always!) have to consider those three issues:

1. Is there more or less gold coming up out of the ground?
2. Is there more or less gold being consumed or bought in the market?
3. Is the currency base moving up (inflation)?

In case #3, gold’s price moves upwards only because the currency value has fallen. This means that a move from US$700 to US$800 per gold ounce doesn’t really return a reward, it just made all other prices higher due to the dollar’s fall in value. Yet if gold does move upward in demand, or downward in available supply, we’d also see prices move up, but not just due to currency values falling.

I still am not certain as to why we saw the massive de-hedging this year. The gold news sites (Kitco, GATA, etc) issue absolutely impossible to read reports written by people who don’t want to explain why this is happening, other than to confuse the situation. With the de-hedging likely coming to an end (at least in speed) this year, it could have two opposite pressures on gold’s price in all currencies:

1. End-of-year gold profit taking would send the price down in currencies.
2. End-of-year gold supply reductions could send the price up in currencies.

Will they balance each other out? Will one overpower the other?

Through 2006, I increased my silver hold and actually liquidated some gold. In early 2007 I increased my gold positions early on, and slowed down my silver holds. In the third quarter of 2007 I increased both in equal measures. Now I am bearing on gold for year’s end, for a variety of reasons.

First, the credit crunch is hurting wealthy people I know. I know of at least 3 business owners who manage $100m+ businesses who rely on the commercial paper market to protect cash flow. They use factoring organizations, short term loans, and lines of credit to overcome their slow payments from clients. I’ve noticed my own income has slowed from an average collection of 45 days to 70 days. This is not just in consulting, but also in working with not-for-profits. I don’t use lines of credit to keep cash flow smooth, I deal with the peaks and valleys. From an income perspective, I am paper poor for the fourth quarter due to delinquent payments over 45 days. When the wealthy are cash poor, they’ll sell commodities to make up the difference. Almost every wealthy person I know with gold holdings over US$100,000 is talking about selling at year’s end.

Second, the de-hedging puts a lot of confusion into what really will happen. If the producers expected gold’s price to fall regardless of currency inflation, I’d think they would be VERY concerned and hedge stronger. If gold’s price fell due to monetary deflation (the act of destroying credit and liquidity), I think they would have little concern as that act can also put downward pressure on machinery and energy costs. If they believe that there will be a shortage of gold and an increased demand, I would think they would want to be exited from all hedges (which cost money) since they feel secure in real profits from gold sales, not just paper profits from the fall of currency values.

Third, my focus on gold has always been to protect myself only in massive societal emergencies, coupled with the fact that gold is illiquid to me for short term useless purchases. Gold’s liquidity is great if I am in real trouble, but I won’t go out and buy a $3000 TV or a $30,000 car by selling my gold without thinking. When I sell gold (rarely), it is always to cover real short term or long term concerns (such as if my collections go over 80 days and I have no available cash to live). I feel comfortable with my income positions in 2008, especially with my deliquencies settling at the 50-55 day mark. When someone owes you money for 2 months, but still uses your services, it is usually a sign that they know they need you. If they escalate to 70+ days late, it is usually a sign of severe problems with their business or market. I can weather the 50-55 day delinquency just fine, and it gives me a sense of job security since I feel my business income will maintain a mild growth or minor loss in 2008. We’re prepared for a 25% fall in revenue, but are expecting a 7% increase in 2008. My real concern comes in 2009, especially if the credit crises get more severe worldwide.

My gold for 2008 is not to necessarily increase my gold or silver positions significantly, but to work harder to decrease our expenditures even more. We’re a six-figure household, but this winter we’re doing the blankets and sweatshirt “energy conservation” routine. Set the thermostat at 65 and deal with cold mornings. We’re also working harder at reducing our driving, cutting back to using 1 car 90% of the time. Also, we’re correlating our long distance visits with customers, family and friends to coincide with each other. If I have to work sometime in the next week 25 miles from here, and it’s close to a friend or family, we’ll set up both visits together. We’re currently trying to see if we can live on 1/4th our income without dipping into our hard money or credit lines. We’re working heavily on new income streams that should turn profitable in 18-24 months, albeit at 1/10th my hourly rate.

I am fairly scared for the status quo United States resident. I have many friends with significant debt on their books (at least 4X annual income, including mortgage), and they aren’t considering market declines in their industries. I think that the next 18 months should be a time to shore up savings (whether in dollars or hard money) rather than just debt reduction.

I am a big fan of paying off your debts fast, as fast as possible, even if it means that your life isn’t so fun for a year or two. I’ve changed my position completely. Now, I believe it is more important to bolster your savings over paying down debts more than the minimum. Why is this?

Consider this: If you use every cent you have to pay for your minimum overhead and maximum debt reduction, you end up with zero savings. If you should lose your job, you will have NO ability to pay anything, including your minimum overhead and minimum debt payment. Even if you’re paying 18% on your credit cards (or more), it makes sense to try to fulfill a savings account that can continue to make the minimum payment through a job loss or market change. Yes, you’re paying more in interest by not accelerating debt reduction, but you’re also giving yourself a bit of protection in the short term. It may add 4 years of debt payments just to get 12 months of savings security, but it will help you weather those 12 months. It’s a hedge against short term calamity.

I am extremely aggressive in telling my heavily in-debt friends to buy gold and silver over debt reduction for the next 18 months. Hard money is hard to spend easily and stupidly. It gives you a position of comfort and reduces the depression of “what am I going to do to pay the bills next month?” But my hard money protection advice comes ONLY with the advice that you must live at the bare minimum, and I do mean the bare minimum. With Christmas ahead, now is a perfect time to eBay literally everything that you own and don’t touch once every 3-4 months. That great book collection? Get rid of it. Toys the kids don’t play with? Sell them. Extra clothes? Even $1 a piece is something, and it reduces clutter and maintenance needs. Tape up the windows to keep energy costs low, wear a lot of layers in the cold winter, skip eating out (even $5 McDonalds runs), and cut back on expenditures as much as possible. Work with another family to oversee each other’s expenses: mutual accountability here is key.

Every other expert, include the honorable Dave Ramsey, will disagree with my “slow down debt payoff” ideas, but they’re also thinking that the market will stay solid for all. I am not so sure. As I said, at worst you may end up with 4 more years of debt and only 1 year of savings — but if there is a decline in your specific industry, you’ll thank me.

Zion, IL
By A.B. Dada
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The day doesn’t end without at least 3 emails from family, friends and customers who are now starting to listen to me. For 3 years, I’ve been the contrarian “sky is falling” housing bubble (and stock bubble, and commodity bubble) advocate, with few if any listening. Now the news is admitting the market’s problems, and some old media organizations are backtracking to the start of it all.

I was the sole Greenspan-detractor in 2002 of anyone I knew. Now everyone is bashing the man that was king.

The most common email I get is “So what do we do???” I’ve been preparing a Flash-based applet that lets people enter all their facts (income, expenses, mortgage, credit, leases, etc, etc), and tries to come up with an answer. Of course there is no one-size fits all solution, but there are generalities for all income and expense levels that should give you a foot in the door to escape the credit crunch.

Many people I know are not YET affected by the credit crunch, because their income exceeds their expenses, if even slightly. Yet with the price of oil, energy, insurance, and taxes moving upwards, more may find themselves upside down sooner rather than later.

If you are concerned about your overall situation, and future, I’d love to get your information so I can navigate some recommendations for each. All I need is weekly income, mortgage/rent payment, property taxes, average monthly utilities, family size, car lease/loan, and total credit card balances. With that info, I can start keying some solutions to the predicament that many of us will face.

My #1 answer to most, which should work for most, is to find a way — immediately — to have 18-24 months of minimum payments in the bank. Yes, cash is devaluing quick, but most of your debt is fixed in payment. By having a 2 year padding, you can still survive up to 4 years just by getting 1 or 2 low paying jobs, and living even tighter. I have one friend, a previous 6-figure earning mortgage broker, who did just that, and he’s stressed but surviving. I know him and his wife (no kids) wear sweatshirts and blankets at home to keep their heating bills low, and I also know that they sold many assets in order to pad their savings more (rather than pay down debt first). More important than having no debt is having your nest egg, your safety cushion, which keeps depression at bay and the bills paid. They’re not doing as well as they were 2 years ago, but they’re surviving, and that’s a key element in keeping your head above water.

For MOST families, I still see spending in excess of 30-40% over the survival minimum. Some families are spending 60-100% over that minimum. With the retail shopping season ahead, it is time to swallow your pride and get a part time job if you can’t save 18 months of payments in the next 6-8 months. I know of one family that started with a $62,000 household income (and $11,000 annual take-home savings after all minimum payments and taxes) with $26,000 annual minimum payments. In 9 months, they will have $30,000 in savings — all because they each added a second job, and cut their expenses close to zero. They’re each making an additional $150 per week, and saving an additional $260 per week by cutting back. After selling assets, adding in their previous savings, and cutting a few huge expenses out, they’re already at $21,000. In 6 months, they’ll be at close to $40,000 saved. Once they pass the $50,000 mark, they’ll be set for at least 2 years — and both will hopefully still have their main job and their backup job. Is life tough? YES. But it is easier than the fellow I know who complains to me every day that he can’t pay his bills, but he spends 10 hours a day online doing nothing. I wish he would jump in, drop the ego, and get a job at the local mall or restaurant.

The worst situation I can see, right now, is the retiree with only social security. I’m not sure how they can survive the pending destruction in the value of their dollar.

This article is followed up here: Save Now, Pay Off Debt Later: A Theoretical Analysis